WHY I'LL CONVINCE YOU ON YU

Earlier this year, I wrote a piece on Japanese phenom Yu Darvish titled WHY YU COULD BE THE ANSWER. I know... we’ve all heard this story before: a studly Japanese pitcher dominates in Japan, impresses in the World Baseball Classic, gets a massive contract in the US, then he turns out to be a dud on the Major League stage. I’ve hear a lot of people calling Darvish "Dice-K 2.0", but a quick look at his numbers shows that this could not be more wrong. The following are the NPB career ERAs for each of the two pitchers.

(In Photo: Daisuke Matsuzaka)

• Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2.95 ERA
• Yu Darvish: 2.01 ERA
  

Their career ERAs are separated by 0.94, nearly a whole run per 9 innings. Trying to compare Dice-K’s success to Darvish’s would be on the same level as saying that Jaime Garcia’s 2011 season (3.56 ERA) is essentially the same as Justin Verlander’s (2.40 ERA). To be frank, it’s not even a close comparison.

Even Matsuzaka’s best season in which he posted a 2.13 ERA doesn’t match up with Darvish’s career average. Similarly, the only time in his career in which Darvish posted an ERA over Matsuzaka’s career 2.95 was his rookie year. The only other time he came close to the average again was his 2.89 in his sophomore season. Since then, he has made NPB hitters look helpless, recording 5 straight seasons with an ERA under 2. If I haven’t made my point, just take a brief look at his 2011 season numbers, his best to date:

1.49 ERA, 17-6, 223 IP, 27 starts (averaging just under 8.1 IP/G), 10.53 K/9, 1.41 BB/9, 9 complete games, 5 shutouts, 7.46 K/BB

Dominant, durable, and only 25. Proof of being able to pitch in the MLB be damned, Darvish is arguably the greatest pitcher we have ever seen come out of Japan, and he is reportedly open to pitching on short rest and is not nearly as anal about routines as Dice-K is. Some consider it a gamble, but when is bringing a new player to the Bronx not a gamble? I say pay the absurd $60 million posting fee and sign him to a 6 year, $55 million contract. Who knows, maybe he won’t turn out to be Kei Igawa.

(In Photo: Kei Igawa)

Even if playing in the MLB causes his ERA to go from 1.49 to 2.98, less than $20 million per year would be a steal when CC Sabathia is getting paid nearly a quarter of a million. Darvish is no Matsuzaka, no Hideki Irabu, and sure as hell no Kei Igawa. In my opinion, after getting everything done with CC and Cashman, Darvish should be the Yankees’ #1 target this offseason.

--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer



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WHY THE YANKEES FELL SHORT

The Yankees started off aggressive in the Motor City. Not knowing what to expect from CC Sabathia tonight, we needed to strike early and we did. Yankees had a 2 -0 by the end of the first, but it was clear that CC Sabathia wasn't doing his best CC impersonation. Instead he was doing his best AJ Burnett. Not good and walks galore.

By the bottom of the 3rd, the game was tied at 2. It was the second time around in the Tigers order and CC clearly didn't have it. Luckily for us, he did what he does best... fake it and get through the innings, not giving up a ton of runs and he kepy his team in it. On the other side Justin Verlander started out not looking great either. But that's what makes baseball great... you never know what's going to happen. In what was billed as a pitching duel, it wasn't. 2 pitchers on short rest, but only one would look good. It wasn't CC. Michael Kay said that the umpire was calling the same game for CC and Justin Verlander. I disagree. Clearly I wanted CC on top, but I tell you what, the strike zone for CC Sabathia was mysteriously small tonight, no doubt. I noticed several pitches that were strikes, were never called strikes for the Yankees. I'm not saying Verlander wasn't throwing them in the zone, he was, but so was CC. Bottom line.

In the 5th, it was clear that CC was laboring. Ramon Santiago put the Tigers in the lead 3-2. Both he and Brandon Inge were 2 for 2. You know, it was strange, Verlander appeared better than CC later, like he had something in reserve, striking out the side in the top of the 5th inning, making Brett Gardner and Russell Martin look silly. To me, I felt terrible. Yes, CC was doing his best dance, but the stuff wasn't there. But say what you will about CC, the guy showed heart and never gave up and never let the runs get out of hand. He did his best under the circumstances, I give him that.In the 6th, Derek Jeter got his second hit of the night. Granderson struck out and was clearly over-matched. He looked like a Little Leaguer up there. ARod struck out and looked ridiculous. To be honest, back to calling balls and strikes, 2 pitches to ARod both were the same pitch, one was a ball, one was a called strike three. I don't get it.(Photo: Getty)
CC Sabathia got knocked out in the bottom of the 6th and Rafael Soriano came in and took care of business. At this point it was 4-2 Tigers and I felt confidence again, my stomach wasn't in knots. I know that if we have stability on the mound, we can get some runs... or can we? We've done nothing since the first inning.

The 7th was nerve racking but there was hope. Posada walked and Martin got hit by a pitch and suddenly Verlander didn't look so good. Of course we needed a base hit for Brett Gardner just to keep the rally going with 2 outs and take the Detroit crowd out of it. Gardy delivered big, 2 RBI double and the game was knotted at 4. I was screaming in my basement at that point, Detroit was silent. But, you know what ticks me off? The announcers sounded sad about it. What the hell is that all about? I thought maybe I'd blow it off,
then Rafael Soriano made a pitch that Delmon Young drove into the right field seats and Brain Anderson, the announcer, was overjoyed. What a dick. At this point, it's 5-4 and I am longing for Suzyn Waldman and John Sterling. I can't stand the way TBS does baseball.

The top of the 8th, Granderson gave one a ride, but it was an out. Cano struck out on a crappy high called third strike. Alex Rodriguez came up and walked. But he looked slow and disoriented the whole at bat. Teixeira came up with 2 outs and a man on first and popped out weakly to Inge. Again Brian Anderson, the announcer sounded thrilled. John Smoltz actually made a comparison of Justin Verlander to hall of famer Nolan Ryan saying he's never seen anything like "this" since Nolan. Are you kidding me? The guys pitching a good game, can't we just we just leave it there?
David Robertson came in in the bottom of the 8th inning. Robertson struck out the first batter but then nails Peralta. It happens.

Then, Valverde came out to try and close out the 9th against the Yankees. Nick Swisher came up and popped out. Unbelievable. One out and Jorge Posada stepped into the box. He's 4-8 at this point. Posada worked a walk. Man on first and 1 out. Running for Posada was Eduardo Nunez and when Russell Martin came up, he gave the pitch a ride, but it was caught in right and Nunez could not advance. 2 outs and Gardy came to the plate. Nunez stole second and now he's in scoring position. Next thing you know, Gardner works a walk and men are on 1st and 2nd for Derek Jeter. The table is set. But there was not joy in Yankeeland... Derek Jeter had struck out.

Final Score: Tigers 5 - Yankees 4

Tomorrow IS do or die.

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ONE GAME AT A TIME

(Photo: AP)
The Yankee Stadium crowd was hushed today by Max Scherzer, doing his best Cy Young impersonation. Look, Scherzer is not an incredible pitcher, but for some reason, he has the Yankees number. You have to give him credit, he came into our house and took over. I watched today in frustration, but I didn't watch it real time believe it or not. Thank God for my DVR.

At 3 o'clock, I was at my kid's Little League game. There's a lot going on as you can tell. My son told me as we pulled up to the baseball field, "Today, I'm going with my Cano stance." He was clearly honoring Cano after last night's grand slam. I looked at him and said "Just be you." My guy was on his own mission today, he was fighting for more playing time next game as well as a shot at moving up in the batting order. To him, the playoffs and his personal challenge we're similar. You have to give him props, he's hungry.(Photo: AP)
Meanwhile, Freddy Garcia gave us a good pitching performance today and delivered what we needed him too. In 5.1 innings, he allowed 6 hits and 4 runs and struck out 6. Although, it started out rough, with a quick 2 run home run by Miguel Cabrera and by the bottom of the first inning, it was 2-0 Tigers. The only thing that would make that worse would be Max Scherzer man-handling the Yankees... and he did. The Yankees we no-hit for the majority of 6 innings. Scherzer left the game just giving up 2 hits.

Meanwhile, back at the Little League field I was constantly pacing, watching my son play and listen to the radio at the same time. I was a wreck. My boy creamed a liner down the first line in his first at bat, but right at the first baseman. 0 for 1. Then, he worked a walk and came around to score. The next time up, he singled on a softy dribbler...my man beat it out. Then, in his fourth time up today, a nice line drive over the head of the second baseman and into right center. 2 for 3 today and a smile as he stood base. Good. One stress is over, my kid did good today, but now the Yankees need to win.

As we came in the house, we turned on the TV. It was 4-0 Tigers and then Curtis Granderson came to the plate and crushed a homer run to make it 4-1. The Tigers got the run back making it 5-1 in the top of the ninth off of Luis Ayala. More on him in a moment.
In the bottom of the ninth, Nick Swisher came up to face a lethal Jose Valverde. Well, he wasn't that lethal to Swisher who crushed a solo shot to make it 5-2. Then Jorge Posada came up and he cranked a shot to center and Austin Jackson was lost. Posada got a triple. Next, Russell Martin worked a walk and Andruw Jones who was 3-7 lifetime against Valverde came up. He had a nice shot to right, but ran down by Don Kelly . Jones sacrificed Posada home. One out.

Derek Jeter came up. Russell Martin was on first. After Jeter had him chucking pitch after pitch, Jeter eventually struck out. 2 outs now and hope was dwindling. Curtis Granderson came too the plate and it was a huge moment. Martin is now on second base. Granderson hits a high pop up to the Tigers side in foul territory. Alex Avila slips on the Yankees on-deck circle logo trying to catch ball, but misses... how ironic. I thought for sure, that would be the turning point. Then... Granderson walked.The table was set for Robinson Cano. Men on first and second and Cano is up. The score was 5-3. The rain was now pouring in the Bronx and with an 0-2 count on Cano, a soft grounder to second... Game over... Tigers win. The ALDS Series is now tied at 1-1.

Now I mentioned Luis Ayala and I noticed the Twitter world is hammering Ayala. Yes, Ayala is giving up runs, but I think I understand Girardi's thinking. I think Joe wants to have the big guys fresh for the next 3 games and if Ayala can get some outs and not allow games to get too out of control, that's a good thing in Joe opinion. Look I don't know if that's what he's doing, and if it is, I don't agree, but I think that's what his thinking is. My thinking is, this is the playoffs, we need to shut down the competition. Look, I really don't think we're going to see Ayala much more this ALDS. I really think it's a strategy by Girardi. All I'm saying is don't panic yet.

Final Score: Tigers 5 - Yankees 3.

Tomorrow in Detroit is Game 3. It's being billed as the Matchup of the Century...CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander. Interesting stat for CC... As a Yankee, his record in Comerica Park is 0-3 6.00 ERA. Now, stats don't mean much because CC could come in tomorrow night shut down Detroit. The good news is, if for any reason CC can't hack it, the Yankees have a well rested bullpen in Rafael Soriano, David Robertson and Mariano Rivera.

Justin Verlander at home is 10-3 with a 2.37 ERA but with no day off, anything can happen. Don't forget, Verlander has never pitched on short rest, CC has. It's going to be a tough pitched game.

Yankees need to pull this off... and I know they can. Let's Go Yankees!

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2011 ALDS YANKEES VS. TIGERS GAME 2 PREVIEW

(Photo: AP)
Last night's resumption of Game 1 was awesome. Ivan Nova proved to everyone he can pitch on the big stage against a very good Detroit Tigers team, while Robinson Cano continues to become a great postseason hitter. Did you know, that in Cano's last 10 postseason games--three series--he's hit .375 (15/40) with five homers, and 12 RBI (six in last night's game)? He's been amazing, and he's really one of the best hitters and probably the best second baseman in all of baseball, and because of it the Yankees have a 1-0 lead in the best of five ALDS against the Tigers.

Anyway, the game this afternoon is huge. In a best of five--or seven--series, visiting teams like Detroit really aim to win one of the first two games in the series so they can go back home and win their home games and win the series. With that being said, it's very important that the Yankees get this one. Justin Verlander is going on Monday in Game 3, so the Yanks would love to have a 2-0 lead.The pitching matchup for Game 2 is Freddy Garcia (12-8, 3.62 ERA) for the Yanks, against Max Scherzer (15-9, 4.43 ERA) for the Tigers. Garcia has an 18-8 career record against Detroit with a 3.88 ERA while losing his only start against the Tigers on May 4 in Comerica Park while going 7 innings, allowing four runs on 10 hits and two walks while striking out a season high eight batters. Some guys who've had good success against Garcia in their careers are Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, and Delmon Young. Ordonez is hitting .327 (17-52) with a homer and six RBI while Cabrera is hitting .391 (9-23) with three homers and six RBI career against Garcia. Some hitters who don't fare quite as well against Garcia include, but aren't limited to, Victor Martinez, Austin Jackson, and Ryan Raburn. Martinez is a .233 hitter (7-30) while Jackson and Raburn each hit .222 (4-18) and .111 (1-9) against Garcia, respectively.(Photo: AP)
Max Scherzer is 3-0 in three starts with a 2.84 career ERA against the Yanks, while going five innings and allowing six runs in his first start of his season on April 3 at the Stadium, and pitching eight shutout innings while striking out eight Yankees at Comerica Park on May 4. It's tough to find too many players who've had good success in a big sample size against Scherzer, but Mark Teixeira is 3 for 10 with a solo homer and Curtis Granderson is 3 for 12 against Scherzer. After last night's 0 for 5 Alex Rodriguez probably won't enjoy seeing Scherzer because he's 0 for 8 in his career against him.
(Photo: Getty)
The other starters that include Russell Martin, Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, and Brett Gardner have combined to hit .166 (10-60) against the Tiger right-hander in their career. It should be interesting how this one will turn out.

This would be a huge win for the Yankees if it can happen. Being up 2-0 and putting Detroit on the brink of elimination would be great.

Go YANKEES!!!




--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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2011 ALDS YANKEES VS. TIGERS GAME 1 PREVIEW

Mother Nature has been a pain to the Yankees all season long. With the postponement of yesterday's Game 1 due to rain--the Yankees 22nd game this season affected by rain by the way, the Yankees and Tigers will go at it again. The game will resume tonight at 8:37 PM Eastern Time with the Yankees batting in the home half of the second inning and the game tied at 1-1.

The starters for Game 1 were originally CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. But now that Mother Nature is playing a role, both starters won't pitch again until Game 3 in Detroit on Monday. So, Ivan Nova (16-4, 3.70 ERA) will oppose Doug Fister (11-13, 2.83 ERA) later tonight.Ivan Nova doesn't have much experience against the Tigers. He didn't pitch against Detroit at all this season, and has only pitched against them once in his career, which in fact was his first career major league appearance. He pitched in relief on May 13, 2010 in Detroit against the Tigers while going 2 innings, allowing two hits, no walks or runs with one strikeout. The only two hitters in the Tigers' starting lineup that have a hit against Nova are Delmon Young and Magglio Ordonez who are a combined 2 for 4. Wilson Betemit has one hit in one AB against Nova, while Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Austin Jackson are all 0 for 1 against Nova. Obviously, those are all extremely small sample sizes against Nova, so you can't make any conclusions.
(Photo: Getty)
Doug Fister, on the other hand, has faced the Yanks in a bigger sample size compared to Nova against the Tigers. Fister has faced the Yankees three times in his career going 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA while allowing 24 hits in 18 innings pitched. He faced the Yankees once this season while he was still with the Seattle Mariners. He went 7 innings, allowing three runs on seven hits and five strikeouts on July 26 at Yankee Stadium. There are some hitters in the Yankees lineup who have had good success against him in his career. Derek Jeter has gone 4 for 10 with two RBIs against Fister. Mark Teixeira has gone 3 for 9 with a homer and four RBIs.

Also, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher have each hit a homer against Fister while combining for 3 hits in 10 AB's with three RBI. As a team the Yankees are hitting .302 in 63 AB's against the Tiger right-hander.

Although the weather forecast doesn't look to promising, (it's actually worse than it was last night) hopefully we can get this one in. The Yankees and Tigers have lost their travel day on Sunday because of last night's rain out and another rain out tonight may force them to lose their Wednesday travel day--if necessary--to New York for a possible Game 5. This game will be a big test for both Nova and Fister as the two are making their first career playoff appearances. Hopefully Nova and the Yanks can come out on top.

Go Yankees!!!

--Jesse Schindler, BYB Staff Writer




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RAIN, RAIN GO AWAY

Obviously, you know by now tonight's game was rained out. The game was tied 1-1 and the Yankees were to come up to bat in the bottom of the second inning. This game, according to Joe Torre, will be resumed tomorrow evening where the game left off.

First pitch of the new Game 1, will be tomorrow evening at 8:37pm ET. Both managers will go with their Game 2 starters. Ivan Nova vs. Doug Fister.

Then, Game 2 of the series is now scheduled to be played at 3:07 p.m. on Sunday, Freddy Garcia vs. Max Scherzer.

Game 3 would then be Monday... CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander.

One final thing, the rain is supposed to fall all day tomorrow. Tom Verducci just said that there was possible discussion that if it rains all day tomorrow, there could even be a double header on Sunday to get the games in. But we have to just take it one day at a time.

WTF.

By the way, my personal observation... TBS doesn't do baseball too well. during this whole mess tonight, I found myself longing for Craig Sager, at least I could chuckle at his outfits. My guess is he refused to have any rain get on his blazers so he bailed. That's a joke Mr. Sager... don't get upset.


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2011 ALDS: BYB YANKEES NOTES

Yankees against Verlander: Justin Verlander is 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA against the Yankees. The Bombers hottest hitters are Derek Jeter (.357 AVG/10 H). Jeter has also struck out 7 times against Verlander in 28 at bats. Jorge Posada (.333 AVG/7 H/5 RBI), Brett Gardner (.375 AVG) and Russell Martin (.400 AVG/2 H in 5 AB). Nick Swisher has 3 home runs against Verlander but is only batting .167 against him and has 19 strikeouts. Wow.

Nick Swisher: No one’s better than George King III and he had a piece in the New York Post about Swisher and his struggles in the postseason. Read it HERE. He writes that part of the problem, according to Kevin Long is Nick Swisher gets too amped up. Swisher says “I get jacked up and my emotions are high. That’s my fight, to control my emotions.” Since 2009, Swisher is batting 12-81 with 2 homers and 4 RBIs in 5 postseason series. In 2 ALDS, Swisher is batting .208.

Tigers against Sabathia: CC Sabathia is lifetime 15-12 pitcher against the Tigers. He carries a 4.54 ERA. The hottest Tigers hitters against Sabathia are Miguel Cabrera (.563 AVG/2 HR/11 RBI), Austin Jackson (.286 AVG/1 HR/2 RBI), and Magglio Ordonez (.268 AVG/3 HR/18 RBI).

Freddy Garcia: Freddy gets the nod for Game 3. Garcia is 6-2 in the postseason. When he was a member of the White Sox in 2005, he was 3-0. In my humble opinion, Freddy Garcia earned this spot in the ALDS.

Justin Verlander: The Yankees faced Verlander 2 times this season. Both times the Yankees were patient with him and made him throw a lot of pitches until he was knocked out of the game. Both times Verlander had a no decision against the Yankees. Patience will be key once again.

Alex Rodriguez: “The knee is ready to go,” is what Alex Rodriguez said. I’m not quite sure ARod will be has dominant as he was in 2009, and that could hurt a bit. In the 2009 postseason, Alex hit 6 homers and batted .365. If Alex can’t hack it and the knee is bothering him, I suspect Eric Chavez, a former Gold Glover would get the call at 3^rd.

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WHY THE YANKEES ARE A STATE OF MIND

The past 20 hours have been quite insane. When I watched the Yankees lose to the Tampa Bay Rays and saw the Red Sox’s Carl Crawford miss a liner and Jonathan Papelbon walk off the field, it may have been the greatest feeling of my life since the worst feeling of my life, that 2004 collapse of the Yankees when the Red Sox won 4 in a row. I still don’t know how that happened there. I just remember this… the Red Sox fans made every single one of us Yankee fans feel like shit and when I think about it, I still get pissed. Now, the payback is sweeter. I don’t hate 1 Red Sox fan. I hate the franchise and love my Yankees beating them, and if that means they don't make the playoffs, that's terrific... plain and simple.(Photo: Getty)
Then I got to thinking about last night’s Yankee game, you know the one where Joe Girardi single-handedly lost the game being cute using every pitcher we had, I realized that you can’t even blame Scott Proctor for that loss last night. He was throwing around 60 pitches at that point where Evan Longoria homered. You have to expect a homer to happen eventually. Even though that game didn’t matter to the Yankees, I thought about something interesting. If the Yankees were playing the Red Sox last night but were in the same position, meaning that they had already clinched, and already had the best record in the AL, would we have played the same way? Would Girardi had used all his pitchers the way he did? No. Would Mariano Rivera had come in to try and shut down the Sox? Yes. If last night we played the Red Sox, it would have been a must win.

It goes back to my theory, winning every ballgame counts. Look, the Yankees and Red Sox don’t mix, they’ve never mixed and trust me, if Dan Johnson was David Ortiz last night, the Yankees would have brought in the top closer in the world to shut him down.
(Photo: Getty)
You know me. I hate to lose and in my opinion, walking into a playoff against a potential Cy Young winner like Justin Verlander scares the everliving shit out of me. Why? Because we’re riding a 4 game losing streak. Now, the ALDS is a whole new season, this is true. Do I have faith in CC Monster and my Yankees? Yes, but losing is easy to do and once you do it a few times, it becomes easier and easier and all I’m saying is our Yankees need to and will have to turn it around tomorrow. We need to set the tone.

Luckily for us, this Yankee team is loose. This Yankee team forgot about last night, because, let’s face it, it was more of a celebration of the Red Sox being out of it than the Rays winning the Wild Card. Today is a workout day, tonight, a light dinner, talk alittle strategy, early bed of an early rise and my Yankees will be ready to go. They’re over it so I’m over it... I’m ready to see my Yankees do damage.

I wrote a piece simply titled WHY THE YANKEES WILL LOSE ALDS WITHOUT MOMENTUM. I was sick of losing the last few games of the season and was shooting from the hip. Luckily, you die-hards talked me off the ledge. @jenjeter2211 said it best. “Casey, we have momentum… home field, CC, Nova, Freddy... Jeter, Grandy."
She’s right. We DO have CC and the others. The Yankees CAN make their own momentum. Yankee Stadium during the playoffs is the best place in the world. We have the best fans in the world and the Yankees know that. They feed off that, they feed off each other. Can we win this ALDS? Yes, damn straight! Will it be tough? Yes, but there is one phrase that I forgot about in my 48 hours nervous insanity... “One game at the time.” We can do this, we WILL do this and we will advance… Why? Because we’re the God damn New York Yankees, that's why.

A few quick notes: Alex Rodriguez will be in the lineup tomorrow night for the start of the ALDS. Read about ARod HERE.

Jesus Montero’s X-Rays have come back negative and he’ll be ready to play. Read about it HERE.

Freddy Garcia will be the #3 starter in the ALDS behind CC Monster #1 and Ivan Nova #2.
The Yankees won 97 games this season. That’s no fluke, that’s not luck... that’s solid offense and solid pitching… and we were worried about our rotation all season...remember?

Get Ready Ladies & Gentlemen… here come our New York Yankees…Quest for 28 coming up!

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