PREDICTING THE MVP & CY YOUNG AWARDS

It’s hard to believe that it is already September, which means we are in the final sprint for post-season play and voting for the best of the best. There are a lot of deserving candidates out there, so there is no sure vote.

It’s no secret that good pitching is the key to winning games, and this is the year of the pitcher. Question is, which pitcher is going to be King of the mound this year?

NL Cy Young candidates

A: Cliff Lee: 16-7, 2.47 ERA, 204 strikeouts, 1.031 WHIP. Lee went 5-0 in August and had at least 10 strikeouts in eight games this year.B: Cole Hamels: 13-7, 2.63 ERA, 169 strikeouts, 0.97 WHIP. Hamels holds the best WHIP stats in the National league, would have more wins if his team gave him better run support.

C: Roy Halladay: 16-5, 2.49 ERA, 195 strikeouts, 1.06 WHIP. Halladay has 7 complete games this season and has walked only 25 batters this season. He also has the best strikeout to walk ration in the big leagues. Is there ever a year when this guy isn’t in the CY Young discussion?
D: Clayton Kershaw: 17-5, 2.45 ERA, 222 strikeouts, 1.02 WHIP. Kershaw trails only Halladay in complete games pitched; he also leads everyone in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts. He is second in WHIP and ERA.

Cy Young prediction: Clayton Kershaw
Runner-up: Roy Halladay

AL Cy Young Candidates

A: Josh Beckett: 12-5, 2.49 ERA, 155 strikeouts, 0.98 WHIP. Beckett has bounced back nicely from 2010 but has a lower strikeout total than the other candidates. He has done well keeping runs scored to a minimum allowing no more than five in any game this season.

B: James Shields: 14-10, 2.77 ERA, 205 strikeouts, 1.02 WHIP. Shields has pitched 10 complete games this season for the Rays. He could become a free agent at the end of the season if they don’t pick up his club option, but I doubt this happens.C: CC Sabathia: 19-7, 2.97 ERA, 211 strikeouts, 1.17 WHIP. Sabathia should make 30 starts for the 10th time in his career. His strikeout ratio trails only Kershaw and Verlander and has the second most wins in the majors.

D: Jered Weaver: 16-7, 2.49 ERA, 176 strikeouts, 1.03 WHIP. Weaver is argued to be the second most consistent pitcher after Verlander this year. He also has the best ERA in the league.
E: Justin Verlander: 21-5, 2.34 ERA, 224 strikeouts, 0.91 WHIP. Verlander is first in wins, strikeouts, and WHIP in the league. He has also gone 18-2 since April and has a no-hitter this year.

Cy Young prediction: Justin Verlander
Runner-up: Jered Weaver

Pitching wins games, but you also need a good offense to give you the run support. Question is, who has been the most valuable player?

NL MVP Candidates

A: Joey Votto: .316BA, 26 HR, 90 RBI. Can he repeat? His home run, RBI and OPS totals will most likely fall short from last year. His team does not have a shot at repeating their division title, so this will probably cost him votes.B: Prince Fielder: .292BA, 31 HR, 108 RBI. Fielder is argued to be half of one of the better offensive duos in the majors, but a teammate has been more effective offensively and probably fairs better to win. He is a league leader in RBI’s.

C: Matt Kemp: .319BA, 32 HR, 107 RBI. His average, stolen bases (37), home runs and RBI’s look impressive, but his high strikeouts (137) will probably cost him. He also plays for the Dodgers, who have had a less than impressive season which will cost him some votes.
D: Ryan Braun: .333BA, 27 HR, 95 RBI. Braun has had an impressive year leading the league in OBP (.402) and slugging percentage (.590). He is also among league leaders in runs scored and batting average. He also is second with stolen bases (31).

MVP prediction: Ryan Braun
runner-up: Matt Kemp

AL MVP Candidates

A: Adrian Gonzalez: .342BA, 23 HR, 105 RBI. Gonzalez has the best batting average, and amongst leaders in OBP and SLG percentage; however….he is sure to split some votes between himself and another Red Sox candidate.

B: Jacoby Ellsbury: .312BA, 24 HR, 85 RBI. He has the second best batting average, and the most stolen bases; however he is sure to split some votes with Gonzalez .C: Jose Bautista: .304BA, 40 HR, 92 RBI. He’s having another great year, and can still come close to the same number of home runs as last year. The fact that his team is not in contention in a much more competitive AL East division than last year is sure to cost him votes.

D: Justin Verlander: Yes, the wins and ERA are impressive; however pitchers have their own award. He is worth a mention though.

E: Robinson Cano: .305BA, 24 HR, 105 RBI. Cano is quietly making a case for MVP again with his consistent hitting and offensive and defensive skills but will he split votes with another Yankee?
F: Curtis Granderson: .269BA, 38 HR, 109 RBI. His batting average is lower, however his consistency this year is amazing compared to last year. The changes he has made have helped the Yankees win, and the power numbers and RBI’s don’t hurt either. He also has more extra base hits.

MVP prediction: Curtis Granderson
runner-up: Adrian Gonzalez

Clearly we're Yankee fans, clearly we root. But as far as this post is concerned, I’m glad I get to predict who will win, rather than give the news when the voting is done. It will be interesting to see how far off these predictions are. But like they say, you can’t predict baseball…



--Jeana Bellezza --BYB Writer and Editor



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WHY BURNETT NEEDS TO SHUT UP AND PITCH

“I have to find a way to have fun.” – AJ Burnett

AJ, welcome to New York and welcome to the New York Yankees. If you don’t win in New York, you don’t have fun, that's the reality. Sorry pal. But here’s an easy solution…start winning.

AJ Burnett has been defended by me for a few years now, but I also know the truth about AJ Burnett; he’s no superstar, he’s just a pitcher that makes bank. That being said, good for him, but he gets paid to do 1 important thing…win. The problem is, he’s not winning.

AJ, this is a simple formula that anyone can understand, even my 8 year old son who helped bring his team to the semi-finals of their little league knows it. When they don’t win, it isn’t fun. When you win, it is the greatest game in the world. Not sure how it works? Then think back to 2009 when you were World Champions, I remember you smiling a lot then. Recently, you’re not.

During the winter, the goal was clear, AJ needed to clear his head, re-learn his mechanics, build his confidence, pitch and win. It’s my theory of the Pyramid of Pitching Dominance. I wrote about it all winter, I wrote about it with Phil Hughes and of AJ Burnett and any pitcher that had lost their way for that matter. We even teach it to the kids in Little League. Coming into April, AJ looked relaxed, he looked confident and he looked ready, then suddenly he wasn’t winning in the most important time of year, now.

So, how do we fix it? Rothschild needs to talk AJ down from the edge, get the guy focused and re-evaluate Mr. Burnett again, that’s a start. I’ve always said AJ needs a little birdie on his shoulder telling him how good he can be. AJ needs his hand held and he needs a leader, like a CC or in the old days of the Blue Jays, Roy Halladay to look up to. Unfortunately AJ needs it all.

(Photo: Getty)

He said it himself. In reference to his last outing, he said, “I wished somebody would have grabbed me and shook me.” Let’s face it, he’s high maintainance and right now he’s seeing the New York media closing in on him just like they did last year around this time, it’s familiar. He remembers and it’s affecting him mentally, it’s all affecting him. While it’s alittle overwhelming, my best advice to AJ is to just shut up and pitch.

Tonight is key because he spoke to the media and explained how important it was that he was an effective pitcher tonight: “I know it’s my job and I know I get paid a lot of money.” First off, AJ feels the pressure, if he didn’t, he would have never said that to the New York media, but more importantly, and secondly, now he’s backed himself into a corner. If AJ Burnett blows tonight’s game, it will be a pile on tomorrow and AJ will be at the bottom of the heap.

Tonight, I will watch the game closely, analyzing AJ’s body language and his mechanics. I will cross my fingers when need be and I will pray to the Yankee Gods that this guy that I’ve backed all season long can pitch like he’s capable of…and NOT like AJ Burnett. We need a win pal… let’s go!

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WHY THE YANKEE KIDS ARE GROWING UP

There's no way to question it; Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos are the future of the New York Yankees, and the day is coming when they'll no longer be top prospects, but instead rookies. Some have suggested that the two are looking at a starting spot for the 2012 season, but in light of recent events and rumors its looking like the future is today, if you'll excuse the cliché. Manny recently became the youngest player in Scranton Wilkes-Barre, and Jesus Montero's power surge and rising average (both of which I said would come around July-August, as usual with him.)

Manny made his first start since being promoted to the AAA level last Tuesday and reminded us all why he had the Yankees universe buzzing in the spring. He pitched in and out of danger against the Iron Pigs, displaying the advanced pitching arsenal and veteran-like understanding of sequences he's become known for. His final line was 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 3 BB, 7 H. Looks pretty good, but even better is the fact that he would've had 9 or 10 strikeouts and only 1 walk if the umpire hadn't blatantly blown a few calls. But perhaps it's for the best that the umpire created a bit of adversity for Manny in his very 1st inning in AAA. After striking out the first batter he faced, Manny gave up a single to Pete Orr, and walked two straight on blown full count calls. A normal 20 year old kid would absolutely fold under such pressure, but Man-Ban is no ordinary 20 year old. He proceeded to strike Delwyn Young out swinging, and forced Erik Kratz to weakly pop out and strand the bases loaded.That was basically the story of the entire game, Manny kept guys out of scoring position, but when they managed to get there he'd strand them every time. The Iron Pigs were a pathetic 1 for 9 with RISP and left 10 men on. The first of the two Iron Pigs runs came off a monstrous Domonic Brown solo blast, and let me tell you if it takes arguably the best hitter in the Minor Leagues (he and Montero likely tie) to score off Baneulos, he's making huge strides. The second came with 2 outs and a man on second, when Pete Orr hit a deep fly ball which center fielder Greg Golson misplayed and allowed to drop for a triple. Frankly, he should have read it, caught it, and ended the inning, but instead he allowed the go ahead run to score and put a man on 3rd with Domonic Brown coming back up to the plate. Manny wasn't fazed at all, he got a ground ball right back to the mound which he casually took over to 1st to close out the inning. He got into a little trouble again in the 5th when with 2 outs he gave up two straight singles and moved up the runners with a wild pitch, but he instantly snapped back and got Cody Overbeck to strikeout swinging, and end his AAA debut.

Perhaps most importantly he threw an even 100 pitches, a sign that he's being stretched out and is ready to take the next step. It's not a great sign that it took 100 pitches to get through 5 innings, but if he gets those two strikeouts instead of seeing them turn into walks, and the defense makes a few plays that get covered almost every time at the major league level (such as a failed double play by Bernier and Golson's misread), he would've been closer to 80 and had enough gas to go an inning or two longer. With this in mind, I have to say it was quite an excellent first outing.
There's been talk of calling him up in a month to work out of the bullpen as a lefty specialist, not a LOOGY mind you, a full inning guy, through the pennant race and post-season. While some fans may moan and groan at the idea, seeing how bouncing Joba and Phil between the pen and rotation worked out, I'm in full support of it. People forget that pitchers have been broken in as relief pitchers for ages. For example, two time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, a man many have compared Banuelos to, spent two full seasons hopping between the bullpen and rotation before becoming a mainstay. David Price too was broken in as a relief pitcher, and do you see him on the DL? No last I checked he's making some merchandise that says “I gave up DJ3K” with his signature, so clearly it didn't completely wreck his career. Hell Joba had health issues before he was even drafted, which is why he fell to us, so his issues should be no surprise. He isn't a disaster either, he was having a great season before undergoing what is these days a very routine surgery. Hughes was an 18 game winner, so obviously it didn't kill him, rather he's gone through what even Roy Halladay, who posted an ERA of 10.64 in his second year, has gone through: a major slump that causes him to change things and work hard. If his last start is any indication, he's going to throw like the All-Star he can be again, so I don't see how there's some huge issue with it. Manny may very well be introduced as a reliever, and I'll just be happy to see him up in the Bronx.
And how fitting that Montero was behind the dish to guide Manny through his first start. These are two battery mates we hope to be seeing for a while, so seeing them work together on Tuesday was like a glimpse into the not so distant future. Montero had a huge night himself, going 3 for 4 with a homer, which he followed up with a 1 for 3 1 BB performance last night. Jesus has really caught fire at the plate; in his last 10 games he's batting .342/.395/.632 (1.027 OPS) with 3 homers and 2 doubles. I know I've said it many times before, but now I can confidently say that Jesus is coming (pun intended, please excuse it). Look for a more expansive look at his numbers and his future role with the Yankees from me in the next day or two.

In the meantime, I found an excellent article by Donnie Collins from July 22nd HERE that I found to be one of the most insightful and level-headed articles on Montero around. Check it out.




--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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WHY CRUCIFYING BURNETT NEEDS TO STOP

(Photo: Getty)
I’m sorry, but I’m at the end of my rope with people continually ranting against AJ Burnett. Suggestions that AJ needs to be traded or released because he’s not pulling his weight are ridiculous. Let me give you an important piece of information. AJ Burnett is not a superstar. He’s never been a superstar. He’s a very good pitcher that sometimes gets into trouble and barely ever gets run support. That’s it, end of story. For anyone who thought we were getting CC Sabathia "light" was reading the wrong headlines. Read Baseball Reference. They have all of AJ’s career stats, and while some years look stellar, some don’t and guess what, it’s always been that way, so get used to it.

AJ Burnett was on a pitching staff with the Florida Marlins that consisted of Brad Penny, Josh Beckett and Carl Pavano and when the Yankees played the Marlins in the 2003 World Series, AJ was hurt and didn’t even pitch. When AJ went to the Blue Jays, he was behind Doc Halladay in the rotation and while he had 1 great season winning 18 games in 2008, he had a few seasons that stunk. 2001 he was 11-12 with a 4.05 ERA. He was 10-8 for 2006 and 2007 with an ERA in the high 3's those 2 years. His best record ever? 2008, 18-10. Fact.

This is a pitcher that looks much better if his offense hits and scores for him and if not, whatever mistakes he makes on the mound are amplified ten-fold. This is nothing new about AJ Burnett. No, he’s no scrub, but yes, he has his problems, just like every other pitcher does. Larry Rothschild has really done some magic this season getting AJ right, and while it hasn’t always worked, I think everyone can agree, it’s gotten better. Last year AJ was lost, 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA, his worst season ever; No confidence and no great quality starts the second half. This year he started strong and while he hasn’t exactly continued strong, he’s in a much better situation than last year.

I don’t dislike AJ Burnett, in fact, I dig his stuff, but tweaks are continual with AJ Burnett and Larry Rothschild knows this. So, he’ll need to make them, and fast. Even in WHY CASHMAN BELIEVES IN HIS YANKEES, I even chose AJ Burnett as the 3^rd starter if we were to start the playoffs tomorrow. Who did I pick as our number 2? Bartolo Colon. I know, it sounds crazy but if you need consistency, you need to do that. Put it in perspective; If CC Sabathia were to win a Game 1 and Colon pitched like he’s been pitching all year and won Game 2, at least if AJ didn’t get run support, we’d only be down 2-1 instead of 1-1 and Freddy Garcia could use his veteran experience to take us to the next round. That’s not a slight against AJ Burnett, that’s the reality.

The Yankee brass sold us all a bill of goods in 2009 propping AJ Burnett up on a pedestal when he came over to the Yanks. CC, AJ and Teixeira came over and it’s was their brilliant P.R. machine at work, hinting about the Yankees new “aces” and a “1,2 punch” and yes, for 2009, it worked in their favor. But, honestly, anyone who knew AJ’s career numbers and injury record knew this was bogus. If you believed it, you were dreaming. Again, AJ Burnett is no superstar pitcher, he’s a talented pitcher that is constantly a work in progress and I’m fine with that because I never saw him as anything over than that.

(Photo: Getty)

So understand it and accept it and tell me, what other pitcher out there is better than AJ Burnett? Ubaldo Jimenez? I doubt it. I put him at the same level as AJ. 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA in 2009 and 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2010. I’m sorry, 1 great and 1 good year does not a superstar pitcher make. Jimenez was 6-9 with the Rockies this year before going to the Indians. And what about Bedard? Erik Bedard was available. The Red Sox snatched him up. Well, they can have him. This is a guy that is always injured and to me, he’s over, lefty or not. There is no other starter that was available that I’d want on the mound in place of AJ Burnett.

So tonight AJ, you need to do your magic. Pitch, pitch, pitch and the offense, God willing, will get you the run support you need and hopefully that continues for you throughout the entire rest of the season. I’m pulling for you buddy, don’t make me look like a fool.

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WHY CASHMAN BELIEVES IN HIS YANKEES

Yes, so the Yankees may not have made any huge moves this Trade Deadline, but I will tell you one important thing and you need to respect it... Brian Cashman believes in his New York Yankees and because of that, I believe too.

Look, there were guys out there to be traded for, but what was REALLY out there that was better than what we had? Nothing in my opinion. Erik Bedard? Good luck with that. Ubaldo Jimenez? Let's see how he adapts to the American League with his new team, the Indians. All I'm saying is, if we took a chance and it blew up in our faces, you'd be crucifying Cashman. It's a tough game, but Cash believes in the Yankees and he's not going to just go grab guys because it "might" work, he just wants to be sure.
Now, King Felix factor still fascinates me. The Yankees love this kid, I love him, but the Mariners and the Yankees just don't get along since Cliff Lee and it's clear to me, unless the Yankees offered the farm to get Felix, he was staying put. So, what will they do? I say they save their dough and wait. They will wait it out until either the Mariners change their minds, or until King Felix becomes a free agent and then they do everything in their power to get Felix to the Bronx.
Heath Bell was out there and he's a top closer for the Padres, but was he REALLY available? We saw that Mike Adams was untouchable, according the Padres, yet, he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline. Remember when I told you no player is untouchable? I'm right. The Padres saw something they liked better than Adams and suddenly Adams is on a plane to Arlington. It's that simple.

Cashman is a tough guy and while he's saying he's not about to make a move, I believe he will, but only if it's better than what we got. The deadline may have passed, but moves can still be made and if anyone can make them, it's Cash. You can still make trades if a player is on waivers and believe me, if there is someone that works, they'll be snatched up by Cashman.But I'm getting ahead of myself. After the deadline on July 31st, it was revealed that Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos will be promoted. So, with no big names coming to the Bronx, Cashman demonstrates his patience and calls up the kids. OK, I like this idea. Read about it HERE and HERE. Manny Banuelos is going to Scranton Wilkes Barre and I guarantee you we will see this kid in the Bronx. Not only will he be the lefty specialist in the pen that I predicted, but if shit hit the fan and we needed him for a spot start, I bet you'd see him too. I believe this kid has the stuff.

Then there's Jesus Montero, who's batting .283. Look, Russell Martin, isn't doing too good these days and it makes sense. Reports are Montero will be up in the major leagues this year, after all the talk that he wouldn't be. That's right, Jesus is coming, the question is, when?

So while these moves are smart, my only concern is this; Will these 2 kids lead the charge to win the Playoffs and World Series for the Yankees? No. But it's exciting and if Cashman sticks to his guns, it's clear that he has a reason, a plan, a method to his madness... Let's hope at least.

Then I got to thinking. If it was Game 1 of the Playoffs right now, this is who I would have pitch:1. CC Sabathia
2. Bartolo Colon
3. AJ Burnett

Now, is it what I thought we would have when I looked at our Yankees rotation in April? No, but believe me, it works. The only real issue is, can guys like Colon and Freddy Garcia stay healthy and not fade. That's the big question. Then you need to go further; Say we make it through both rounds and enter the World Series; This is who I would choose:

1. CC Sabathia
2. Bartolo Colon
3. AJ Burnett
4. Freddy Garcia

Now it's starting to be alittle more concerning, but, the good news is we have guys that we may need as long men or spot starters if things fall apart; Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, Manny Banuelos. If one of the old timers shits the bed, that's our fall back. Again, is it ideal? No, but it works. Now, look at the Phillies:1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Cole Hamels
4. Kyle Kendrick

They have an ace in Halladay, but Lee is beatable and so is Hamels. And look at the Giants:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Madison Bumgarner or Ryan Vogelsong
4. Barry Zito

Lincecum is the ace for sure, and Cain, when on, has great stuff too. But Bumgarner, Vogelsong and Zito are beatable.

Look, this is the hand we're dealt, and while Cashman has dealt it, Cashman is smart not to be hasty. Plus, we can still get guys off waivers until August 31st if it works. So, understand this; What we have now is very possibly what we'll have come the playoffs. One thing you have to realize is there were and may not be any "key" guys out there that could make a difference or that we can get. Would you really take Erik Bedard over Bartolo Colon right now? No way, not me.

Cashman has a plan, he's sticking to his plan and you need to respect his plan. And guess what, if he's wrong, he'll expect to be crucified by the fans, but one thing is for sure, believing in a team because of their talent means something. Cash isn't filling holes for the sake of filling them, that's smart in my mind, but let's hope it works.

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